All courses Math III · S-MD.6 54 of 55
Use probabilities to make fair decisions in more complex settings.

List ordered path probabilities and test equal-outcome fairness

Problem
A fair coin is followed by a fair six-sided die, and each ordered pair (coin result, die number) is a fairness target. Compute every ordered-outcome probability and evaluate fairness across the 12 outcomes.
Your answer
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Hint

Draw a tree and label each branch probability.

Multiply probabilities along each ordered path; add across disjoint paths; fairness here means all final listed outcomes have equal probability.

Solution walkthrough

01

Count the ordered outcomes

\[2~\text{coin}~\text{results}*6~\text{die}~\text{results}=12~\text{ordered}~\text{pairs}\]

Each coin result can be paired with each of the six die numbers.

02

Use independence for one pair

\[P(\text{specific}~\text{coin}~\text{result}~\text{and}~\text{specific}~\text{die}~\text{number})=(1/2)(1/6)\]

The fair coin and fair die are independent, so multiply their individual probabilities.

03

Compute and check total probability

\[\text{each}~\text{pair}=1/12;~12*(1/12)=1\]

All twelve pairs have equal probability and together exhaust the process.

04

Evaluate fairness

\[\text{Each}~\text{of}~\text{the}~12~\text{ordered}~\text{outcomes}~\text{has}~\text{probability}~1/12,~\text{so}~\text{the}~\text{process}~\text{is}~\text{fair}~\text{across}~\text{those}~\text{outcomes}.\]

Fairness across the stated targets means every ordered pair has the same probability.

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Another way

  1. List H1 through H6 and T1 through T6; the product rule gives 1/12 for every listed pair.

!

Common mistake

Do not assign probability 1/6 to each pair; that ignores the coin probability and makes the total exceed one.

Coin–die ordered outcomes — answer Exact answer evidence diagram using only the supplied atomic outcomes, probabilities, or simulation results.
Exact fairness evidence and criterion-based conclusion.